Anne Thompson’s recent post on ‘changing tactics’ for independent film distribution shows how tenuous things are in the game these days and how much digital is becoming a part of all distribution strategies. She proposes that self-distribution is becoming increasingly attractive and/or viable, with films like BOTTLE SHOCK and GOOD DICK entering into service deals rather than going the straight distribution route.

But the idea that “filmmakers don’t have to give away the store with DVD deals anymore” seems a little premature, at best.  Especially for independents, revenue on digital download and streaming is not even in the ballpark with DVD yet.  This is partly because the independent audience skews a bit older and slower to pick up on tech (obviously, some indie films do have very young demographics). Partly it is because the majority of sales right now are on iTunes, and iTunes are basically like Blockbuster in terms of what sells and what they offer.  Mostly it is because way more people rent and buy DVDs, even still, than have the means or desire to watch them on a download.

It may seem like a coup to retain digital rights if you do a DVD deal but you may be shooting yourself in the foot.  A good distributor will manage your digital rights in concert with the DVD to make sure you see the maximum revenue on the balance sheet.

The film business has always been a high-risk venture, but now at the onset of a deal, the willingness to give is at an all-time low. Filmmakers want to hold on to whatever they can, in hopes they can parcel off rights for some benefit in case one or another distribution partner fails.  Distributors want every right, so that they can consolidate their campaigns and also have different avenues to fall back on if one strategy fails.  The only protection you have as a filmmaker ultimately is to know who you’re getting in bed with and their track record- or to do it yourself, but armed with a lot of knowledge and some good consultants.

You might be lingering in the past, thinking that while the major blockbusters are scanned, ripped and up on every free download/streaming/torrent site you could imagine, just by virtue of demand (or lack thereof), smaller independent or foreign titles are still somewhat protected from the phenomena. I recently got schooled by a young pirate who explained that, to mix a few metaphors, the long tail has snaked deep into the booty troves of “stolen media” traders. Even fairly obscure films are to be found on the file sharing servers and P2P networks trolled by the technically savvy film consumer. For free.

There is no limit to quality, my young pirate assures me, HD files being in plentiful supply. And once one person has a file then it is only a matter of time before the file is trading hands and multiplying. This copyright meltdown might have had some upsides for musicians, who lost traction in their industry but could potentially parlay their marketing successes into revenue at live events or for merchandise (given that they were alive and able to perform). There seems to be little parallel to films that cost several million dollars to make at minimum, and (with the exception of blockbuster hits or children’s films) do not have external revenue sources beyond sales of the film at the cinema and home media.

Still, there may be a little time left for filmmakers and distributors to figure out what to do. In the independent market, filmgoers tend to be older than the average indie rock fan. The bandwidth and technology to support true high-quality downloadable film media is just emerging. But the many competitors- and especially the many struggling competitors and competitors who are trying to respect the copyright limitations within the works themselves- may make the high seas of pirated media look very attractive.

Much as with music, what seems likely to me at this moment to happen is that filmmakers themselves will find grassroots ways to make money. And some corporate interests will find a way to make money. But the “film industry”? Those are rough seas ahead.